I've been a political blogger for nearly 10 years now.  I started casually in my college years, then was inspired to dig full-steam into it after the tragic events of 9/11 (2001).  My writings have appeared on such Internet sites as CNN, Fox News, The Huffington Post, Red State, Think Progress, Instapundit, Talking Points Memo, Little Green Footballs, Daily Kos, Michelle Malkin, Crooks and Liars, Libertas, Five Thirty Eight and many more.  (That may seem impressive, but I take pride in posting at as many places as I can…)  You can tell by that list that I'm an equal-opportunity editorialist – I am a true centrist and refuse to choose sides.  I think that's what America needs right now: reason above passion.  Sure, I could be either a liberal or conservative... but that's too easy.  All you do is repeat your party's mantras over and over again depending on the subject. ("No taxes!  Gun rights for all!  Ban gay marriage!" or "Global warming is real!  George W. Bush is a war criminal!  Bring back welfare!")  How simple is that?  I just call it like I see it, readers.

I should also point out that I don't actually have my own blog or publication.  I consider myself a writer of the people, and therefore I'd rather publish not in one place, but in as many as conceivably possible.  Thus, you have likely read my musings in Comment sections and public postings under my nom de plume "TJefferson69," or, where that violates site standards, "The Republicrat."  (It took me three weeks to come up with that alias – you'd be surprised just how hard it is to come up with a name that says you straddle the line between left and right.  (I originally used "The Demolican," but it didn't sound as catchy.  But it was definitely a difficult choice...))  You can probably tell that Thomas Jefferson is sort of a hero of mine, but I have to admit: the "69" after "TJefferson" IS immature.  (I've just been using that since high school, and have never gotten rid of it.  But lots of readers think that’s the year in which I was born, so it gives me an extra veneer of legitimacy… 10 years’ worth…)

A brief note of thanks to the editors at thesimon.com.  Usually I don’t have anyone proof-reading my work, so it’s good to know I’ll finally have a posting that’s free of spelling and grammatical errors.  (Or so they’ve promised me – if there’s anything incorrect, you now know who to blame…)

Anyway, I'm already violating my self-imposed word count rule (“The most valuable of all talents is that of never using two words when one will do” – Thomas Jefferson.  See?  I told you I was a fan…), so I should get right to it.  I'd like to discuss the current state of this year's presidential contest, and tell you what I think as a seasoned political analyst.  You can rest assured that my musings are grounded in investigation, thought and fact – for I am a near-professional blogger. (I say “near-professional” because technically I don’t earn a living as a writer – nor do I need to.  I do this purely to feed my life-long love of politics.  Earning a paycheck from an employer might threaten my impartial, strictly even-handed stance.  Well no way…)

There I go again… sorry.  Okay, here goes, for real this time:

Truth be told, these are bad times for Barack Obama, and I'm not sure he can recover.  He went on his big trip around the world, all to look presidential (as if he didn't already – the man is tall…), only to look like he was avoiding the problems American citizens at home want him to solve.  So I think McCain is on the verge of landing a knockout punch (metaphorically speaking...).  Also, Obama keeps saying he doesn't want to talk about race... and then happens to mention something about not looking "like the other presidents."  Which most people, myself included, think refers to race.  And I think the polling backs me up on that.  Average Americans don't want to be reminded of our racial past.  Obama needs to return, fast, to the early days of his campaign, when he promised to be a post-racist man of the people.

McCain has accused Obama of being a celebrity, and I think that will resonate with John Q. Public.  People want their politicians to be political first and celebrities second... not the other way around. (Consider Sen. Patrick Leahy, who showed up on time for each and every vote in the Senate… but only THEN made time for a brief role in THE DARK KNIGHT… that’s how you do it, folks… (as an aside, based on that smash-hit’s box office returns, that was a wise move on his part…))  The more famous Obama is, the more the Republicans will attack him for that.  After all: we live in a new age of celebrity – call it the "TMZ/Us Weekly/YouTube Age” where anyone can instantly be well-known by millions – so while Reagan and Thompson and Bono (Sonny, not U2) and Schwarzenegger were technically celebrities when they were elected as Republicans, you can't accuse the Right of hypocrisy on this... the pop culture changed in the last couple of years.  Meanwhile, I see that Obama took the advice I posted in a comment to an article on Firedoglake two weeks ago: go to Hawaii and lay low… stay out of the press for a few weeks.  He doesn't want to come off as over-exposed, like Paris Hilton or Britney Spears, just like in that one McCain ad.  Never mind that he's already proposed solutions to our economic, social and environmental problems – McCain has played the familiar "rich white girl” card on Obama, and it's potentially devastating.  I'm also surprised Obama wasn't ready with a response – I believe the “rich white girl” card has been an election-year staple ever since Rutherford B. Hayes used it to defeat Sam Tilden in 1876.  It's somewhat amateurish of him not to have been expecting that line of attack from McCain.

And speaking of McCain ads, there’s supposedly a new one that plays up the notion that Barack Obama is “The One” (read: the Anti-Christ).  The ultra-right also has been saying quietly (or so they think – there is nothing you can keep “quiet” on the Internet…) that “Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ” for months now, or at least ever since he was certain to win the nomination.  Democrats who are sensitive to such slander think this is an unfair, demeaning attack – but if Obama wants to clinch the election, he should in fact run on that platform and say “Yes, I AM the Anti-Christ!”  Because look at it this way – anyone who’s not a crazy Evangelical-type will think he’s just joking around.  But anyone who is a crazy Evangelical-type will say “All right!  If I vote for the Anti-Christ and he gets elected, that will only hasten the (so-called) End Times… and that would be awesome because I’d be raptured!”  And then they’d vote for him.  So Obama would get all the votes of atheist/agnostic Democrats (I’m repeating myself here…) and round up most, if not all, of the crazy Evangelical-types who want to be raptured.  But my guess is Obama isn’t willing to run on that message.  And that’s a shame, because it would totally help him, mark my words.

And as for John McCain himself, the emerging accusation against him in the press is that he's a flip-flopper... but I don't know how well that will stick.  If McCain is anything, he's old.  And people think of old people as being fairly stubborn and unmovable.  So I'm not sure why people imagine that the "McCain will say anything to get elected" "meme" will fly.  Sure, he's totally switched his positions in the last year or two on immigration; the economy; abortion; Bush's tax cuts; off-shore drilling; gay marriage; campaign finance reform; torture; Iraq; Afghanistan; energy conservation; gun control; ethanol; promotion of the Confederate flag; religion in government; Martin Luther King, Jr. Day; affirmative action; equal pay for women; environmental protections; attack ads; and many more.  But I'm a political blogger by nature – I don't think voters realize that McCain has flip-flopped on literally every single issue that affects them.  So consider him safe on this score.

In regards to polling: Democrats have a huge advantage over Republicans this year (thank you, George W. Bush/Dick Cheney).  And you’d think that would be helping Obama: in a potential matchup against “generic Republican,” he wins by over 30 points.  Ah, you’d think that.  So then why isn’t Obama crushing McCain?  After all, there is not a more “generic Republican” THAN John McCain… so he should be leading by the same amount: 30+ points.  Right?  But over the last week, the polls have shown Obama leading by only 47-41 percent, which is an overall gain by McCain of two points against his opponent since the previous week’s polls.  Extrapolating that out: with the resulting average gain of two points every week, expect McCain to take a lead in the polls by September 5th, and go into the November election with a roughly 16-18 point advantage.  Quite a turnaround – but numbers don’t lie.  (That's just the math as it stands now – Obama has a chance to turn it around, but the trend is evidently HUGE for McCain right now...)

As for the candidates' vice presidential choices, those are sure to have some impact on the race.  From my sources, I'm hearing Obama is strongly considering Evan Bayh of Indiana, which would be sure to impact the vote in that state.  I'm also hearing that on the Republican side, McCain is very high on former candidate (and Mormon) Mitt Romney, who would help deliver Utah and Mormons; Louisiana governor (and thirty-something Indian-American) Bobby Jindal, who could help deliver that state along with middle-aged Indians; and Florida governor Charlie Crist, who could help deliver that state along with homosexuals.  But without knowing who their VP picks will be, it's impossible to gauge just how they'll move the race one way or the other.  So we’ll skip this.

Also, both candidates are sure to get post-convention bumps – let's just assume each bump cancels the other out.  Though the Republican convention happens after the Democratic, I foresee a mild McCain advantage.  Unless it doesn't last into October.  Which is also possible.  In that case, advantage: Obama.

So that's the state of the race as of today, Monday, August 11, 2008.  Feel free to bookmark this article and return to it on November 5th, just to see how frighteningly accurate my predictions are (or should I say, have been…)! *

Until next time – this has been TJefferson69/The Republicrat (formerly the Demolican) aka Kevin Field... now I’ll see YOU in the blogosphere!

* Keep in mind that over the next two months, anything can happen – I'm debating whether or not to go public with the rumors I read on the Net about some scandal about McCain causing the USS Forrestal fire back in 1967 (more to come in a future blog comment, maybe in a diary on www.mydd.com).  If that were to go wide in the MSM (MainSteam Media), it could literally be explosive...