Our very own Oscar handicapper tells you what to pick in next February's Oscar pool.
Hello everyone, Kevin “The Academy Man” Field here to prognosticate on all things Oscar-related.
I’m sure you’ve seen lots of buzz online from movie bloggers about who will be nominated for which Academy Awards… but trust me, most of them don’t have any idea what they’re talking about. If it would take an infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters to someday produce “Hamlet”… it would take about five minutes from a dozen monkeys to come up with some of the crap these fools spill out. Take Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere (I’ve never read someone who hedges their bets like he does)… or the disgusting Nikki Finke at Deadline Hollywood Daily (who only prints what her studio and agency sources tell her to)… or, worst of all, David Poland at The Hot Blog. (Got a gaudy, overpriced musical? Congrats! You’re Dave’s pick for Best Picture! After swinging and missing on PHANTOM OF THE OPERA and DREAMGIRLS, I can only imagine he’s got MAMMA MIA! at the top of his list this year…)
The difference between those hacks and myself is that I actually know what I’m talking about. I win my Oscar pool every year, without fail. I’ve thought about this year’s slate of movies, analyzed a number of factors for each of them, from casting to box office, and come to some surefire winners in the most important categories. (I should also admit that I’ve missed some of the bigger “prestige” movies of the year, but I’ve done enough research and debating online that it shouldn’t matter.)
In order of Most Important to Least Relevant:
BEST DIRECTOR: Normally you’d start with Best Picture, but I’m instead starting with this category since it’s informing what will prove to be a very difficult Best Picture race to call…
You’ll be hearing many of the so-called pundits parroting the same stock predictions this season: David Fincher. Sam Mendes. Danny Boyle. Stephen Daldry. (I refuse to add Gus Van Sant to the list – he’s been forever spoiled by appearing on “Entourage.” What, Gus – you needed the money?!) But those pundits don’t think outside the box, and thus get caught in a kind of groupthink Oscar circle-jerk. Here’s what they aren’t thinking of: the wild card that will sweep in to claim victory.
Only this wild card isn’t wild at all – it’s only the most commercially successful card of All-Time. Yes, I’m talking about Steven Spielberg for INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL. This is a movie that audiences just loved (just check the box office receipts). Spielberg was doing something no other director has attempted before – he dusted off a long-forgotten, too-old character, brought him out of a well-deserved retirement after 19 years -- sweet Jesus, nineteen years – and made Indy relevant again in the 21st century. That’s no easy feat, and I guarantee you, it’s a feat no other director could pull off. And the Academy loves him. (If he releases a movie, always assume he’ll get a nomination – it’s automatic.) So don’t be surprised to hear the name of the Almighty Spielberg read from the podium – you heard it here first.
BEST PICTURE: INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL. I should probably explain my thinking here, since hit summer blockbusters normally don’t bring home the gold. But there’s a method to my madness, as I alluded to above.
I haven’t been able to get into a media screening of BENJAMIN BUTTON yet, and probably won’t see it until sometime after it opens on Christmas Day. But mark my words, you’ll be hearing no end of the praise for this movie. Why? Because it’s what the marketing machine wants you to believe. And online “critics” only feed into that. But what is this, really, but a hugely expensive Brad Pitt movie (when have you ever seen a good one of those?) that’s also just a chance to show off special effects? And when have you ever been touched by a David Fincher film? Pass.
Also, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE will be hyped (to death) by Fox Searchlight’s PR team. Well, as Public Enemy said, “Don’t believe the hype.” I haven’t been able to catch a screening, but as one of my movie gurus told me, “I didn't feel a lot emotionally in SLUMDOG and was reminded of Boyle's TRAINSPOTTING, another really propulsive movie that breaks down once you start thinking about its story problems. Impressive and slightly excessive – this isn't Boyle's best movie, just his Boyle-iest.” Does that sound like an Oscar winner to you? I didn’t think so either.
You might hear some incessant chatter about REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, which is based on a book I haven’t read (and, might I add, I don’t know anyone else who’s read it either); is directed by Sam Mendes, who won for a movie no one likes anymore, AMERICAN BEAUTY, and is thus ineligible from ever winning another Oscar; and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. It’s obvious that the studio just cared about trying to steal some of that TITANIC magic, but come on – Jim Cameron EARNED that magic, it didn’t just happen. And Winslet is actually married to Mendes in real life, which is just too weird – you don’t ask your wife to make out with another man, even if they just say it’s acting. No way.
All the rest of the “obvious” Best Pics have fatal flaws: MILK? Too gay. DOUBT? I doubt it! CHE? No one will sit through a nine-hour biopic of some guy they only know from college kids’ t-shirts. FROST/NIXON? Too gay. So we come to the one truth behind every single Academy Awards ceremony ever: 99% of the time, whatever movie wins for Best Director also takes home Best Picture. And thus: INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL. (I said I had a method…)
BEST ACTOR: Everyone’s talking about Sean Penn as Milk in MILK… but let’s be honest: the Academy refused to honor BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, so Penn has no chance. The elderly voting bloc comprises 82% of Academy voters, so there’s no traction in what might be a fantastic performance (I haven’t seen it yet). The other actor leading the way as far as hype goes is Mickey Rourke for his comeback performance in THE WRESTLER. But have you seen Mickey Rourke lately? Take a minute to Google-search a recent picture. He looks like a freak. So I think Rourke will have to settle for a nomination at best – once voters realize that it’s not makeup – it’s his authentic, hideous face they watched in the movie – they’ll be too turned-off to give him a second thought.
I went for a more crowd-pleasing pick among Robert Downey Jr. in IRON MAN, George Clooney in LEATHERHEADS, and Kevin Costner in the criminally-underseen SWING VOTE. The hot buzz is all about Downey – this would normally be his year – but his performance in blackface in TROPIC THUNDER is a guaranteed turnoff to the Academy. This is the year in which Barack Obama was elected to the presidency, and I guarantee you, this is no longer the time to make minstrel show jokes. It’s unfortunate Downey (or was it his agent?) decided to take the money and act, because he threw away his best chance at the Oscar in what would otherwise be a surefire win. Now, Clooney likes to go both ways, and simultaneously act AND direct, as was the case in LEATHERHEADS. So while he had a lot on his mind during production (“Do I yell cut or should someone else? Where do I line up the camera for my next shot?” ) and admirably gave a sterling perf at the same time, look to another Actor-turned-Ladies Man-turned-Director to take home the statue. Winner, in this politically charged season: Kevin Costner, SWING VOTE.
BEST ACTRESS: Blah, blah, Kristin Scott Thomas, blah, Meryl Streep, blah, blah, blah, Cate Blanchett, blah, blah – this is the same freaking list anyone EVER mentions for Best Actress! Wake up! Don’t you ever wonder how Oscar handicappers come up with their guesses? They just recycle the same names year after year after year! That then feeds into the public perception that these actresses are consistently the best – granted, they’re really good, but come on – and that thinking influences the Academy. For the past ten years, practically the only ones to win are Scott Thomas, Streep and Blanchett… enough laziness, people!
That’s why I’m going with my “Dark Horse” candidate, an actress whose film depended entirely on her performance: Tina Fey in BABY MAMA. This movie wasn’t the hit I thought it deserved to be, but behind the laughter it told a lot of simple truths about pregnancy and parenthood. If you want an example of an actress effortlessly doing the heavy-lifting and carrying her movie from start to finish, I give you Tina Fey. Plus, no other actress-comedienne-hyphenate has had such a heavily hyped year, what with her acclaimed performance(s) as Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin… that kind of media coverage will pay off in Academy votes, I promise you. Fill out your ballots now – this pick is a lock.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: This year, it’s no surprise that the best supporting actor can be found in THE DARK KNIGHT. But in what will prove to be a surprise upset – if you believe the Mainstream Oscar-Blogging Media – the Oscar won’t go to clown prince Heath Ledger, but instead to Academy favorite Morgan Freeman. Sure, Ledger was very funny as The Joker, but comedic performances aren’t likely to get nods. And never in Oscar history has a dead actor even been nominated posthumously for an Academy Award (except for, according to Wikipedia, the time James Dean got two noms, then later Spencer Tracy, plus Peter Finch who then WON for NETWORK, and the Italian guy from IL POSTINO). But it would be a shock to see anything come of this performance, and I’m guessing if the Academy wants to honor Ledger it will be for his work in Terry Gilliam’s upcoming THE IMAGINARIUM OF DOCTOR PARNASSUS.
Now, Morgan is solid in the movie, he’s always dependable as an actor, and he’s just plain decent. And the Academy will want to do something to make him feel better after the horrible automobile crash that hospitalized him for several days – that reward will be Oscar. (Besides, he played an African-American president in the film DEEP IMPACT several years back, which paved the way for you-know-who… so I think karma is on his side this year, if you know what I mean.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I can’t think of any really super performances by supporting actresses that I saw this year… so let’s pass on this one until my updated Oscar column in four weeks. (Hopefully by that time someone will have loaned me some screeners – if you can get me some, I can be reached care of The Simon. I will make it worth your while…)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: What a surprise – there’s a lot of Oscar buzz for yet another Pixar movie. Everyone’s taking about WALL-E… but I have to be honest. I just didn’t get it. It was just too depressing, and that’s not what you want out of a cartoon. Other possibilities include a pair of Dreamworks features, KUNG FU PANDA and MADAGASCAR 2. I’ve missed MADAGASCAR 2 so far, but I can’t imagine KFP (as it’s abbreviated online) will catch fire – the biggest problem in the movie is that somehow the Kung Fu Panda has been raised by… a goose? That he calls “father”?! WTF! Pandas have panda children, and that’s it. They didn’t even bother explaining it in the movie – at least it would have made sense for them to say the Kung Fu Panda had been adopted. But nothing. Terrible writing.
But take it from me: space is big this year at the box office, which three CG films dealing with space travel (if you don’t count WALL-E, half of which took place on Earth): FLY ME TO THE MOON, SPACE CHIMPS and STAR WARS: THE CLONE WARS. I didn’t see any of those, but I really liked the Star Wars trilogy (both of them), so my money’s on SW:TCW… but this is more or less a tossup category this year.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL. All the other big FX flicks (DARK KNIGHT, INDIANA JONES, MARLEY & ME and so on) will cancel each other out. FSM will sneak in and snag an Oscar for the extensive, seamless work the FX wizards did to digitally extend star Jason Segel’s penis. (If you saw the movie, you know there was a lot of work to be done.)
From here on out, the awards get kind of boring – Screenplay (who thinks about the script when they’re watching a movie? Maybe writers), Foreign Film (no one sees these, so who knows what to vote for – if there’s something about the Holocaust, bingo), Documentary (ditto), and so on. Best Costume always goes to something pretentious about English people in the 18th century, so this year count on THE OTHER BOLEYN GIRL to nab a statue… and why not Best Makeup too?
Finally, there’s always talk about the Academy adding an award for BEST STUNTS… and based on a five-minute preview of PUNISHER: WAR ZONE that I saw at Comic-Con back in July, the award would be all but locked up! If the category had been added, that is. Give it a look this Friday in your local cineplex – you won’t be disappointed.
See you back in January – have a Happy Holiday, Kevin “The Academy Man” Field
